CONFLICT PREVENTION L#6

CONFLICT PREVENTION

The hope that seeks to redress causal grievances to avoid the escalation of violent forms of conflict or to curtail the re-occurrence of violent exchanges is called conflict prevention. The term ‘conflict prevention’ can be misleading, because theoretically none of the aforementioned aspects aspire to ‘prevent’ conflict as such. Instead, the aim is often to resolve a conflict at hand or more typically to prevent escalation or violent manifestations. Although at times referred to as ‘preventive diplomacy’ and ‘crisis prevention’, such activities usually involve maintaining the status quo due to potential threats associated with crises or the anticipated outcomes from engaging in a dispute.  Conflict prevention, however, recognizes that in order to avoid the catastrophes associated with strife, particularly violent disorder, change is usually necessary, for example, through new institutions, revitalized processes, or the sharing of power. In any case, conflict prevention as an approach relies heavily on accurate analysis of any latent or minor disputes in the hopes of identifying appropriate strategies for resolution or intervention. Such efforts are collectively categorized as ‘early warning systems’, which vary in complexity and approach. They may include fact-finding missions, consultations, inspections, report mechanisms, and monitoring. The predictive nature of conflict prevention raises several issues, particularly regarding the timing of intervention and the possibility of precipitating pre-emptive action by parties beyond the conflict. Humanitarian and moral concerns are often insufficient for initiating effective conflict prevention efforts, even in the face of egregiously violent circumstances. As a result, numerous arguments are put forth on behalf of conflict prevention, for example, geo-strategic concerns, security interests, cost-benefit analyses, and refugee issues. Despite the increasing technical capacity and human ability to identify deadly conflicts before they erupt, as well as the likelihood of extreme costs in life, social cohesion, and regional instability, conflict prevention remains in the realm of theory more than practice. Conflict prevention has predominantly been viewed as the task, if not the responsibility, of international organizations or nation-states neutral to the given conflict. It, however, does not necessarily rely nor should it depend solely on external parties. The most effective method of conflict prevention, although not described as such, is accountable governance, whereby citizens and groups have access to effective avenues and mechanisms for resolving the range of disputes and conflicts that ordinarily arise within societies. Such access not only involves governmental structures, but also requires the cooperation of civil societies and business communities. This is particularly true in settings where violent conflict has already occurred and conflict prevention focuses on inhibiting recurrences, for example through some form of reconciliation.

Steps to Conflict Prevention

·         Facilitate communication between parties to prevent information failures.

·         Build confidence in a common future; facilitate inter-elite exchange.

·         Push for more inclusive resource allocation and a representational political system.

·         Encourage parties to change behavior through persuasion.

·         Provide reliable information through early warning systems.

·         Use diplomatic incentives - good offices & fact-finding commissions.

·         Facilitate of negotiation process: Conciliation, mediation, arbitration, aid cutoffs, and exclusion from international organizations.

·         Sanctions or humanitarian aid.

·         Influence parties by exerting pressure to desist from further provocative acts.

·         Take a traditional role as peacekeepers.

·         Prevent future escalations of conflict by promoting negotiations.

·         Assist in the rebuilding of institutions.

·         Design strategies that induces cooperation and future inter-ethnic relations.

·         Create "Iterative" bargaining environment.

·         Finance and supervise disarmament & demobilization.

·         Retrain police and army and reformulate role.

·         Reduce vulnerabilities by providing information to reduce misperceptions

·         Generate economic opportunities.

·         Prevent future conflicts by promoting democratic institutions.

·         Diplomatic Pressure - Includes political, economic, strategic, and military policy approaches.

·         Sanctions - A punitive strategy designed to alter behavior.

However, while peacebuilding is challenged by the task of rebuilding a society after it has been more or less completely destroyed, Conflict Prevention has to target problem areas within a working (and often adversarial) political system or structure, with the aim of changing the structure in order to prevent future problems. Conflict Prevention and peacebuilding are therefore faced with similar problems and tasks, but different contexts and political environments in which they operate. Below are eight types of initiatives that may be taken to improve a situation in a country:

1.      Community Building: Developing a sense of coherence among parties that have had conflict in the past in order to promote a sense of community within a local geographic entity (such as village, town, city)These kinds of pre-conflict initiatives often fall under the title of civil society building, and can include simple activities such as building a gym, designing a park, or other cultural activities that allow people to meet and interact (regardless of ethnicity or religion), hence improving the sense of community. It could also be efforts by different communities to work together to fill common needs such as repairing religious, historic or cultural sites, building schools or orphanages, industries, farms or other cooperative endeavors. These activities could help to develop a sense of common responsibility and to share the effort of meeting mutual needs. They are also important to reconciliation.

2.      Economic Development: Dealing with economic disparities through development programs can help both disadvantaged and advantaged parties, by reducing inequalities, increasing earning power and creating a sense of self-worth. On the individual or group levels this can include legislation that equalizes the playing field for businesses and entrepreneurs regardless of size, the socio-economic development of disadvantaged communities, the creation of employment opportunities or vocational training, as well as the distribution of aid in order to alleviate the feeling of alienation.

3.      Demobilization: When a situation is clearly drifting towards an outbreak of violence, demobilization programs have to be based on strong incentives or force in order for combatants to give up their hopes of future victory. Paul Collier in Berdal and Malone writes that individuals often enlist in armies that fight civil wars because it provides an easy source of income, but as they become part of the group, their cause becomes more collective. Armies could run out of recruits if a source of income were provided for unemployed young men in such societies. Demobilization can also be applied as part of a peace accord or cease-fire agreement, as a preventive measure to reduce the risk of further violence.

4.      The Rule of Law: The legal system in a society may or may not contribute to the conflict, depending whether it is open and fair to all groups or particularly biased in favor of one. When the rule of law is ineffective in mitigating conflict, the process/system may have to be altered. The legal system, through legislation, judicial process or executive order, can be used to diffuse/defuse tension between conflicting parties.

5.       Preventive Deployment: If there are clear signals of impending violence or a worsening conflict, troops, police or security forces of third parties may be sent into a region to safeguard the population against violence. Preventive Deployment is usually a proactive measure designed to facilitate a political solution by avoiding or limiting violent conflict. It underscores international willingness and commitment to react to a situation, and a concern for civilian populations.

6.      Preventive Diplomacy: We refer to preventive diplomacy as efforts exerted at the most formal levels of government, between officials representing one of the parties. This process is often called Track One diplomacy. There is also a growing awareness of the importance of Track Two diplomacy, referring to talks or negotiations that take place between middle-level government officials, as well as between cultural or intellectual leaders or NGOs. In contrast to “Track One” diplomacy, this lower-level process does not possess rule-making or decision-making capacities, but can facilitate relations between states, without depending only on the elite.

7.      Education: Education is one of the means by which the message of peaceful coexistence can be conveyed to the grassroots. This is not an easy task-for most people it means that they have to re-evaluate and re-examine the knowledge that has been part of their reality. One of the most important areas is history, where two groups can have completely separate narratives for the same historic event. Changing the education therefore also requires rewriting books, and re-educating the teachers. A new “Peace curriculum” can also give students tools by which they can resolve conflict by reframing issues in a more manageable, neutral and perhaps a less emotional way. In order to do so it has to deal with the deconstruction of the given basic, and often negative, information about the “other” and provide opportunities for cultural exchanges and dialogues between groups.

8.      Regime Building: Regimes are ideas or institutions that transcend international boundaries and often manage shared resources and common processes between groups, states or organizations. Regimes can be formal or informal and can facilitate cooperation between parties as well as bind them to certain obligations and tenets that can prevent or limit the resort to violence or other destructive behavior.